How much will the Moana remake gross? While we await box office figures from its opening weekend, and ahead of Moana’s release in Italy, here’s what the latest projections say about the upcoming Disney film starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.
Projections for the Moana remake
According to market surveys conducted on Thursday morning—three weeks before the film’s U.S. release—the live-action remake of the 2016 Disney Classic Moana is projected to gross $85 million on its opening weekend on July 10: this figure refers solely to the North American market and will be added to international box office receipts. Dwayne Johnson returns to play Maui, the demigod he portrayed in the animated film. Catherine Laga’aia will play Moana, the protagonist previously portrayed by Auli’i Cravalho in both “Moana” and “Moana 2.” The live-action film is directed by Thomas Kail, director of “Fosse/Verdon.”
What Do These Numbers Mean?
If anyone is surprised by the relatively low box office projections for Moana, here’s something to consider: aside from the fact that we’re still at the beginning of the marketing campaign, we must also consider that Toy Story 5 has just been released in theaters (with box office projections between $140 million and $150 million this weekend) and Illumination/Universal’s Minions & Monsters is also set to debut, aiming for at least $95 million in 5 days when it opens in the U.S. on Wednesday, July 1.
Furthermore, the projections for Moana are in line with those for How to Train Your Dragon, Universal’s live-action adaptation of the DreamWorks Animation film, which grossed $84.6 million on its debut last year.
Moana is the top choice among general female audiences over 25, ahead of *Mufasa: The Lion King ($35.4 million in 2024) and How to Train Your Dragon, but far behind the animated film Moana 2, which was a massive Thanksgiving hit, setting the record for opening-five-day gross with $225.4 million in 2024 ($139.7 million in 3 days). The first *Moana* in 2016 grossed $82 million in its first five days over Thanksgiving (56.5 million in three days).
Moms and dads are also eager to take their children under 12 to see Moana, but even in this case, the results are significantly lower than those for Moana 2 at the time of its release (though higher than those for Mufasa and How to Train Your Dragon). Girls under 12 will make up the largest audience for Moana, but forecasts indicate a smaller audience than for Lilo & Stitch and Moana 2 at the time of their releases (though still ahead of Mufasa and How to Train Your Dragon).
Source: Deadline
